How fast will U.S. dollar sink?


February 21, 2019

Pat Heller


Such a massive increase in debt, by itself, is an indicator that the value of the U.S. dollar is destined to fall. If investors are looking for a place to allocate part of their portfolio, they would tend to shy away from assets that have the prospect of going down in value.

Already, China and Japan, the largest holders of U.S. Treasury debt, are scaling back on their holdings. Who will replace them, not only in continuing to purchase Treasury debt issued to offset existing obligations as they mature, but also in the huge increase in debt over the next decade?

There really is no outside party that will do so. Consequently, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to again engage in quantitative easing (meaning inflation of the money supply) to absorb the new Treasury debt issues. On Feb. 8, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly told reporters that the Fed was likely to resume quantitative easing as a routine action rather than its current policy that it should only be considered in an emergency.

I have stated all along that the U.S. government would accelerate the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. In recent years, the Federal Open Market Committee had repeatedly stated that it sought to knock down the value at least 2% annually, though not worded so explicitly. How much faster the U.S. dollar will sink over the next several years is now the important question.

This development just adds to the reasons why I consider it prudent to allocate a part of one’s net worth or investment portfolio to ownership of physical bullion-priced gold and silver coins and ingots as “wealth insurance.” In years past, I suggested that the allocation be 5-10% of the total. With this latest development, I am upping the recommended allocation to at least 15%.

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